Five analysts explain why “several significant improvements” led to their Buy recommendations and highlight what investors need to know.
In a Nov. 7 announcement, MAG Silver Corp. (MAG:TSX; MAG:NYSE.MKT) released the results of its 44%-owned Juanicipio project preliminary economic assessment (PEA). “We are very pleased to see the strong positive impact of the enhanced project scope on the already remarkable economics of the Bonanza Zone,” said George Paspalas, MAG Silver’s president and CEO. “The upside to higher metal prices is obvious, but equally important, the project even shines brightly at significantly lower metal prices: At $8/oz silver and $0.75/lb zinc, the project still delivers an after-tax IRR of 15%,” Paspalas stated.
Bhakti Pavani, an analyst with Euro Pacific Capital, pointed out in a Nov. 9 report that “the new PEA on the Juanicipio project is robust with a significant increase in the mineral resource estimate, in our opinion.” She highlighted that “while the mineral resource estimate has increased 64% from its previous resource of 15.2MM, the majority of the increase is in the Deep Zone, where the Company has been actively drilling since 2015. We believe the new PEA economics are robust and have increased significantly despite the lower metal prices.”
Pavani also noted that “despite the increase in the throughput (from 2,650 tpd to 4,000 tpd), the mine life of the project has increased from over 15 years to over 19 years following an increase in the mineral resource estimate. Also, the key to note is the improvement in metal recoveries. For instance, the recovery of silver, gold, and zinc has improved from our estimate of 90% Ag, 69% Au and 87% Zn to 95% Ag, 82% Au, 90% Zn, respectively. The improvement in recoveries should significantly increase in the Net Asset Value of the project, in our opinion.”
She noted that Euro Pacific has updated its “financial model for the new resource estimate, mine life, recoveries and operating cost estimate following which the NAV of the project has increased from $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion. Accordingly, we reiterate the ‘BUY’ rating on the stock but are increasing the PT from US$15.70 to US$17.50.”
Another Nov. 9 report, released by PI Financial analyst Philip Ker, stated that “with Juanicipio now set to turn into a more aggressive story, we continue to believe Juanicipio is one of the leading development projects on the planet.” He highlighted that “the economic study integrated an updated resource which included the discovery and expansion of the Deep Zone which contains a more base metal rich component of the high grade epithermal system. The PEA is quite conservative whereby only 17Mt of the 24.5Mt resource was used along with below average payable rates, higher than market TC/RC charges and operating costs well above what is being realized at the Saucito operation. Despite the conservative efforts MAG still reports a robust after-tax IRR of 44.5%.”
Ker concluded “that with further project advancement, increased value opportunities will emerge and continue to support our valuation.” Ker reiterated a Buy recommendation with a target price of CA$24.85.
Raymond James analyst Chris Thompson released a “Strong Buy” recommendation with a target price of CA$25 in a Nov. 8 report. Thompson pointed out that the “CA$25.00 target price is derived by applying a 1.5x multiple on our minesite NAV estimate for Juanicipio with a 1.0x multiple on the company’s other assets.” He explained that the “target implies a 1.4x Adj. P/NAV multiple which we feel is justified given MAG’s position holding 44% of one of the highest grade undeveloped silver mines in the world, and exploration upside.”
Analyst Joe Reagor with ROTH Capital Partners stated, in a Nov. 7 report, that “the PEA confirmed our prior views on the company and we have updated our model to reflect the new PEA. Additionally, we note that we continue to believe there is significant resource expansion potential at the project. Thus, we are reiterating our Buy rating and US$22 price target.”
Reagor highlighted that “one of the most important aspects of the Juanicipio project is its significant exploration potential, in our view. We note this as the new PEA does not reflect this potential and thus, excludes significant value, in our opinion.”
He concluded that “although we made a number of changes to our mine model for MAG, there was not a significant impact on our DCF based valuation. Most notably, we included a capital raise in 2018 to cover the increased initial capital estimate. However, this added dilution was more than offset by the inclusion of four additional years of mine life and the increase in average annual throughput.”
In a Nov. 7 report, BMO Capital analyst Andrew Kaip rated MAG an “Outperform” with a target price of CA$20. Kaip highlighted that “the new study provides an updated foundation for the scope of the project and underscores Juanicipio’s robust economics.” Kaip estimated that “MAG will need to raise $50-75M to fund its share of the project. MAG looks to be funded through 2018. In our view, the company should not have issues gaining access to additional capital given Juanicipio’s strong economics.”
MAG Silver is currently trading at US$10.44 on the NYSE and CA$13.30 on the TSX.
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1) Melissa Farley compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise reports as an employee. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
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Additional disclosures about the sources cited in this article
Disclosures from Euro Pacific Capital Inc., MAG Silver Corp., Company Update, Nov. 9, 2017
Euro Pacific expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from all companies under research coverage within the next three months. Euro Pacific or its officers, employees or affiliates may execute transactions in securities mentioned in this report that may not be consistent with the report’s conclusions.
Regulation Analyst Certification (“Reg AC”) — Bhakti Pavani,
The views expressed in this report (which include the actual rating assigned to the company as well as the analytical substance and tone of the report) accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) covering the subject securities. An analyst’s sector is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents solely the analyst’s view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months relative to the analyst’s sector average.
No part of the compensation of the analyst preparing this report was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by such analyst in this report.
Disclosures from PI Financial, MAG Silver Corp, Corporate Update, Nov. 9, 2017
I, Philip Ker, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. I am the research analyst primarily responsible for preparing this report.
1) PI Financial Corp. and its affiliates’ holdings in the subject company’s securities, in aggregate exceeds 1% of each company’s issued and outstanding securities. No
2) The analyst(s) responsible for the report or recommendation on the subject company, a member of the research analyst’s household, and associate of the research analyst, or any individual directly involved in the preparation of this report, have a financial interest in, or exercises investment discretion or control over, securities issued by the following companies. No
3) PI Financial Corp. and/or its affiliates have received compensation for investment banking services for the subject company over the preceding 12-month period. Yes
4) PI Financial Corp. and/or its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company. Yes
5) PI Financial Corp. and/or its affiliates have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months. No
6) The following director(s), officer(s) or employee(s) of PI Financial Corp. is a director of the subject company in which PI provides research coverage. No
7) A member of the research analyst’s household serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject company. No
8) PI Financial Corp. and/or its affiliates make a market in the securities of the subject company. No
9) Company has partially funded previous analyst visits to its projects. Yes
10) Additional disclosure: No
Analysts are compensated through a combined base salary and bonus payout system. The bonus payout is amongst other factors determined by revenue generated directly or indirectly from various departments including Investment Banking. Evaluation is largely on an activity-based system that includes some of the following criteria: reports generated, timeliness, performance of recommendations, knowledge of industry, quality of research and investment guidance, and client feedback. Analysts and all other Research staff are not directly compensated for specific Investment Banking transactions.
Disclosures from Raymond James, MAG Silver, Nov. 8, 2017
ANALYST INFORMATION: Analyst Compensation: Equity research analysts and associates at Raymond James are compensated on a salary and bonus system. Several factors enter into the compensation determination for an analyst, including i) research quality and overall productivity, including success in rating stocks on an absolute basis and relative to the local exchange composite Index and/or a sector index, ii) recognition from institutional investors, iii) support effectiveness to the institutional and retail sales forces and traders, iv) commissions generated in stocks under coverage that are attributable to the analyst’s efforts, v) net revenues of the overall Equity Capital Markets Group, and vi) compensation levels for analysts at competing investment dealers.
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) covering the subject securities. No part of said person’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. In addition, said analyst has not received compensation from any subject company in the last 12 months.
Raymond James Ltd. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from all companies under research coverage within the next three months.
Additional Risk and Disclosure information, as well as more information on the Raymond James rating system and suitability categories, is available for Raymond James at rjcapitalmarkets.com/Disclosures/index.
Disclosures from ROTH Capital Partners, MAG Silver Corp., Company Note, Nov. 7, 2017
Regulation Analyst Certification (“Reg AC”): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
ROTH makes a market in shares of MAG Silver Corp. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis.
ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months.
Disclosures from BMO Capital Markets, MAG Silver, Flash, Nov. 7, 2017
Analyst’s Certification: I, Andrew Kaip, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Analysts who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO Capital Markets and their affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. Compensation for research is based on effectiveness in generating new ideas and in communication of ideas to clients, performance of recommendations, accuracy of earnings estimates, and service to clients.
Analysts employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and/or BMO Capital Markets Limited are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of BMO Capital Markets Corp. and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
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